Frinstance "an ancient and dangerous substation (or anything else) gets awarded the same nominal value as a brand new one".
Take a deep breath and read on.......
Richard Healey, posting on Facebook:
17 December 2019
Today,
three years too late, CODC Mayor Tim Cadogen has finally woken up to
the disaster that is Aurora. It occurs to me that he would have
reached this point long before now if he had simply answered my emails
or phone calls.
Cadogan has called for the people of Central Otago to go to Aurora's drop in sessions. Here is my reply to his post.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nice to see you finally comment. The fact is that the published Aurora "guestimates" are completely meaningless. Why? Because Aurora haven't told us what they have used as a starting point for calculating the price rise and they haven't defined what an "average consumer" is.
Line charges are volumetric. This is not a "fixed sum" price rise. What we do know is that the projected rise in line charges for the three years is circa 80% - so far. The document in circulation right now is "only for discussion", the reality will be quite different.
At the time Aurora created these projections, the Commerce Commission had announced that this years price rise (for Aurora) would be 9%. It has since trimmed that back to 3%. It is worth noting that every other consumer in New Zealand affected by the Commissions price setting mechanism will get a price CUT.
You seem to have missed a few crucial facts when describing Aurora's pricing policy. Aurora have CHOSEN to separate pricing according to GXP's ( effectively regionally). It's important to note that the pricing strategy is entirely a creation of Aurora. There is nothing in either legislation or regulation that dictates this methodology.
That decision by Aurora impacts severely on Central Otago consumers - as I have consistently pointed out for three years. The way in which Aurora calculate charges is however even worse than it seems. Aurora don't look at the actual value of the network in each area - which is how the Commission determines the overall line charges - they effectively look at what a new network would cost and then compare each area.
That means that an ancient and dangerous substation ( or anything else) gets awarded the same nominal value as a brand new one. Effectively Central Otago is paying the same price for a clapped out Morris Minor as Queenstown is paying for a Range Rover.
Because Aurora haven't told us what the percentage price rises will be, or what they think the starting point will be in 2022, it is impossible to accurately calculate the effect of the price rise for any individual. If you are a Pioneer customer however you can have a good crack.
Pioneer are the only company who publish the actual line charges on their accounts. If you accept that Aurora has used the provisional ComCom rise of 9% at April 1 2020 as their starting point then the price rise at April 1 2023 will be circa 90%. Look at your current line charges for any given month and multiply that by 1.9, you now know what the increase would be in that month. Remember, the more power you use, the more line charges you pay.
But what happens when the three year period comes to an end? That's up to the Commerce Commission - and they can't tell you. There are no rules around this, but they have told me what they think might happen.
At the end of three years they think the process will be similar to the process they used for Orion. That is not good news. That would mean that Aurora would keep all of the price rises at that date AND it would get the same PERCENTAGE rise that it would have received if the new, massive, rises had never been put in place. In effect, from the end of the price rises they have already told you about, Aurora will get the standard price rise plus a bonus 80% of that figure each year.
I've looked at a few bills from Alex and the figures are frightening.
Are the price rises justified and inevitable? They are not. You have a right to expect that any repair is well targeted and performed in a cost effective manner. Aurora's systems are simply incapable of identifying the condition of the asset and repair costs are out of control. Events in Alexandra are the perfect proof of that.
Look at the number of poles which have fallen in your town in the last year, the last one was at the netball courts, one earlier was at the gates of Clyde Primary, does that indicate to you that Aurora accurately monitor the condition of its asset? The pole at Clyde had been tested only weeks before collapse.
Aside from the fact that Aurora has proven over and over that it is prepared to put the lives of you and your family at risk, it has also proven that it can't identify the most at risk assets reliably. That means that poles, and other equipment, that are in good condition are being replaced while dangerous equipment is left to fail.
And you are paying for it - handsomely.
Central Otago, you are three years behind in this argument. Time to get out there and have your voices heard.
Cadogan has called for the people of Central Otago to go to Aurora's drop in sessions. Here is my reply to his post.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nice to see you finally comment. The fact is that the published Aurora "guestimates" are completely meaningless. Why? Because Aurora haven't told us what they have used as a starting point for calculating the price rise and they haven't defined what an "average consumer" is.
Line charges are volumetric. This is not a "fixed sum" price rise. What we do know is that the projected rise in line charges for the three years is circa 80% - so far. The document in circulation right now is "only for discussion", the reality will be quite different.
At the time Aurora created these projections, the Commerce Commission had announced that this years price rise (for Aurora) would be 9%. It has since trimmed that back to 3%. It is worth noting that every other consumer in New Zealand affected by the Commissions price setting mechanism will get a price CUT.
You seem to have missed a few crucial facts when describing Aurora's pricing policy. Aurora have CHOSEN to separate pricing according to GXP's ( effectively regionally). It's important to note that the pricing strategy is entirely a creation of Aurora. There is nothing in either legislation or regulation that dictates this methodology.
That decision by Aurora impacts severely on Central Otago consumers - as I have consistently pointed out for three years. The way in which Aurora calculate charges is however even worse than it seems. Aurora don't look at the actual value of the network in each area - which is how the Commission determines the overall line charges - they effectively look at what a new network would cost and then compare each area.
That means that an ancient and dangerous substation ( or anything else) gets awarded the same nominal value as a brand new one. Effectively Central Otago is paying the same price for a clapped out Morris Minor as Queenstown is paying for a Range Rover.
Because Aurora haven't told us what the percentage price rises will be, or what they think the starting point will be in 2022, it is impossible to accurately calculate the effect of the price rise for any individual. If you are a Pioneer customer however you can have a good crack.
Pioneer are the only company who publish the actual line charges on their accounts. If you accept that Aurora has used the provisional ComCom rise of 9% at April 1 2020 as their starting point then the price rise at April 1 2023 will be circa 90%. Look at your current line charges for any given month and multiply that by 1.9, you now know what the increase would be in that month. Remember, the more power you use, the more line charges you pay.
But what happens when the three year period comes to an end? That's up to the Commerce Commission - and they can't tell you. There are no rules around this, but they have told me what they think might happen.
At the end of three years they think the process will be similar to the process they used for Orion. That is not good news. That would mean that Aurora would keep all of the price rises at that date AND it would get the same PERCENTAGE rise that it would have received if the new, massive, rises had never been put in place. In effect, from the end of the price rises they have already told you about, Aurora will get the standard price rise plus a bonus 80% of that figure each year.
I've looked at a few bills from Alex and the figures are frightening.
Are the price rises justified and inevitable? They are not. You have a right to expect that any repair is well targeted and performed in a cost effective manner. Aurora's systems are simply incapable of identifying the condition of the asset and repair costs are out of control. Events in Alexandra are the perfect proof of that.
Look at the number of poles which have fallen in your town in the last year, the last one was at the netball courts, one earlier was at the gates of Clyde Primary, does that indicate to you that Aurora accurately monitor the condition of its asset? The pole at Clyde had been tested only weeks before collapse.
Aside from the fact that Aurora has proven over and over that it is prepared to put the lives of you and your family at risk, it has also proven that it can't identify the most at risk assets reliably. That means that poles, and other equipment, that are in good condition are being replaced while dangerous equipment is left to fail.
And you are paying for it - handsomely.
Central Otago, you are three years behind in this argument. Time to get out there and have your voices heard.
Comments
John Evans Incompetence,
Overpaid salaries, the DCC extracting $100 million annually, DCC
councillors, DCHL Directors, Auroral Chief executives and Aurora
chairmen all must be held to account. If we do not hold those public
figures responsible for breaches of fiduciary
duty we allow future public figures to rob us continuously and without
repercussions. Start now, lobby the commerce commission and National.
Labour and the greens don’t want public servants criminalised thats
their bread and butter.
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